University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Consumer Sentiment Index is a survey-based score (base 100 = 1966) of how households feel about their finances and the broader economy. Readings above 80 usually mean strong consumer spending; below 65 typically precedes a slowdown.

• Watch for two consecutive months of sharp drops (>5 points each) — historically that has preceded recessions by 6–12 months.
• If sentiment is falling but unemployment is steady, expect consumers to cut discretionary purchases first (restaurants, travel, big-ticket items).
• Use the index alongside retail sales and ICSA jobless claims for a fuller picture of consumer health.